Doc Merlin

Recalculation in the Labor Market

2010-07-03T05:03:00.000-07:00

A new NY times story about how manufacturing jobs are having difficulty hiring people because of a skills shortage.

Some random thoughts:

This seems to me to be a failure of education.
Eventually companies in the US will have to increase and fund their own education efforts (beyond just specific skills training), because it seems that our k-12 educational establishment has failed to teach a significant portion of our labor force.
This all fits Arnold Kling's "recalculation" story.

My entry to win some ammo!

2010-06-21T07:20:00.001-07:00

"M.D. Creekmore at The Survivalist Blog – a survival blog dedicated to helping others prepare for and survive disaster – with articles on bug out bag contents, survival knife choices and a wealth of other survival information is giving away a 1,000 round case of 9mm – 124 Grain FMJ (a $200 value – donated by LuckyGunner)! To enter, you just have to post about it on your blog. This is my entry. Visit The Survivalist Blog for the details."

The Evil of Giving?

2010-05-24T07:09:00.000-07:00

We find that,

Giving of gifts tends to make givers happy, even happier than spending money on themselves. [1].
Gifts that are felt to be unearned tend to make people unhappy in the long run. For example lottery winners and such tend to in the long run do pretty badly in the long run.

Does this mean that giving gifts to individuals who don't deserve them is selfish and evil? Obviously this wouldn't apply to giving gifts to foundations/charities/etc, because those are not really gifts but they are the relationship of agency with the foundation. We give money to charities because we want them to do what they want to do with our money, so really they are just acting as our agents. However, this would apply to many forms of gifts to adult children, such as inheritance. Also, does this suggest that welfare payments would be worse than government mandated unemployment insurance (paid for by the workers)?

Notes:
For those who don't believe in "evil", replace instances of "evil" with "negative" or "harmful" or whatever similar word suits your fancy.
This talk is what got me thinking about this question.

1. Elizabeth W. Dunn, Lara B. Aknin, and Michael I. Norton (21 March 2008)
Science 319 (5870), 1687. [DOI: 10.1126/science.1150952]

The Same Problem Now as Then.

2010-05-03T19:47:00.000-07:00

“The claims of these organizers of humanity raise another question which I have often asked them and which, so far as I know, they have never answered: If the natural tendencies of mankind are so bad that it is not safe to permit people to be free, how is it that the tendencies of these organizers are always good? Do not the legislators and their appointed agents also belong to the human race? Or do they believe that they themselves are made of a finer clay than the rest of mankind? The organizers maintain that society, when left undirected, rushes headlong to its inevitable destruction because the instincts of the people are so perverse. The legislators claim to stop this suicidal course and to give it a saner direction. Apparently, then, the legislators and the  organizers have received from Heaven an intelligence and virtue that place them beyond and above mankind; if so, let them show their titles to this superiority.” –Frederic Bastiat, The Law, 1850

Federal Land grab

2010-03-05T20:18:00.000-08:00

So, it seems the federal government is trying to take yet more state land. This land grab is unconstitutional. Article I of the constitution requires state permission to take land; the state should sue.

For your edification
The relevant clause in Article 1 Section 8 of the constitution:
"To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of the Government of the United States, and to exercise like Authority over all Places purchased by the Consent of the Legislature of the State in which the Same shall be, for the Erection of Forts, Magazines, Arsenals, dock-Yards, and other needful Buildings; "

Do elected officials not read the constitution anymore?

Best analogy of why the republicans lost in 2006.

2010-01-10T17:17:00.000-08:00

"The republicans are like a Knight in Shining Armor. They rode into town in 1994 and promised to sleigh the Dragon. They then proceeded to make a Deal with the Dragon that when Marauding the dragon would spare each farmhouse One Cow and One Building. Then the Knight is confused why the farmers are upset with him."

From JD

He is Us.

2010-01-05T13:28:00.001-08:00

Freeman, you are wrong. He is coming. He is here. He is us. You and I and all of us are him. This shift is different than previous ones, before we have had some leader to lead us towards freedom, now its our turn to do it for ourselves.

New Age Healing and Prayer Therapy

2009-11-05T11:36:00.000-08:00

Apparently the new health care bill it 'would prohibit discrimination against "religious and spiritual healthcare."'
This means that New Age healing, crystal therapy, and Christian Science 'prayer therapy' would be paid for under the new Democrat health plan.

hat tip: LA Times

Spending is the Problem.

2009-11-05T10:56:00.000-08:00

"Do shocks to government spending raise or lower consumption and real wages? Standard VAR identification approaches show a rise in these variables, whereas the Ramey-Shapiro narrative identification approach finds a fall. I show that a key difference in the approaches is the timing. Both professional forecasts and the narrative approach shocks Granger-cause the VAR shocks, implying that the VAR shocks are missing the timing of the news. Simulations from a standard neoclassical model in which government spending is anticipated by several quarters demonstrate that VARs estimated with faulty timing can produce a rise in consumption even when it decreases in the model. Motivated by the importance of measuring anticipations, I construct two new variables that measure anticipations. The first is based on narrative evidence that is much richer than the Ramey-Shapiro military dates and covers 1939 to 2008. The second is from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and covers the period 1969 to 2008. All news measures suggest that most components of consumption fall after a positive shock to government spending. The implied government spending multipliers range from 0.6 to 1.1. " (emphasis mine)

This means that at best government spending is more or less a net wash, and at worst it causes actual damage to the economy. I've said it before, elsewhere, government spending crowds out individual spending.

Hat tip: Kids Prefer Cheese

Here is the actual paper.

Crime, Certainty, Immediacy

2009-11-01T04:26:00.000-08:00

In terms of crime deterrent from a state point of view, this is brilliant.
I have been saying, to friends and family, for a long time that immediacy and certainty matter a lot more than the severity of the punishment. From a non-state view, this sugests that violent crime would go down if more people were willing to use force to protect their fellow man.

Also, from this we can conclude that if people fought back against muggers, rapists, thieves, etc, we would see a lot less of that sort of crime.

The March of Time

2009-10-30T00:52:00.000-07:00

they claim to know the future
they claim to know your past
but when we are done here
its all just put to rest
and time marches onwards
to its steady, steady drum
and time marches onwards
to its steady, steady drum

they wanna turn
they wanna fight
and then they wanna run
but time marches onward
to its steady, steady drum
and time marches onwards
to its steady, steady drum

The fires burn
across the land time forgot
black wheels turn
bringing fire in the sky
so time marches onwards
to its steady, steady drum

Poem about Orange

2009-09-28T11:32:00.001-07:00

Ode to orange
so jucy and yellow
so sweet and tart and mellow
Nothing rhymes with you
and one and one make two
the line before was just to rhyme
and keep the rhythm
and keep the time
but orange
nothing rhymes with you
Door-hinge

In the name of SCIENCE: Chocolate edition

2009-07-25T23:46:00.000-07:00

"Researchers at the University of East Anglia and a hospital in Norwich, eastern England are trying to find out whether chocolate can cut the risk of heart disease and need 40 women to step forward and help. "

Chocolate every day for a year!

PR FAIL

2009-07-25T23:44:00.000-07:00

From MammaPundit.

"So to recap, Nikon held an invitation-only, evening event to promote their brand to,
and curry favor with high-influence MOMMYbloggers, but then the brand's event planners literally
disallowed women with babies from attending,"

Wow, hahahahahaha

Thomas Sowell talks about his new book Economic Facts and Fallacies

2009-03-22T22:12:00.000-07:00

This is a great video, I learned a lot. All I have to say is "wow!"

Bill That Will Kill Farmer's Markets in Congress

2009-03-18T05:49:00.000-07:00

The Bill is 111th CONGRESS, 1st Session, H. R. 875 and it will make farmer's markets bureaucratically impossible to have.

This bill's main sponsor is Rosa L. DeLauro (D - CT). Her husband has Monsanto as a client.

More details at

A Warning From the Past

2009-03-17T14:29:00.001-07:00

James Madison wrote in Federalist 62 a warning to future generations and one that is particularly apt today:

It will be of little avail to the people, that the laws are made by men of their own choice, if the laws be so voluminous that they cannot be read, or so incoherent that they cannot be understood; if they be repealed or revised before they are promulgated, or undergo such incessant changes that no man, who knows what the law is to-day, can guess what it will be to-morrow. Law is defined to be a rule of action; but how can that be a rule, which is little known, and less fixed?

I don't exactly know how to fix this problem in our system of government. If you have any ideas, feel free to suggest them to me.

CONGRESS TRIES TO OUTLAW GENERIC MEDICINES!

2009-03-06T00:52:00.000-08:00

Looks like congress is trying to outlaw generics!
http://www.opencongress.org/bill/111-s501/text

Here from the bill:
The senators involved are:

ROCKEFELLER (D-WV)
SCHUMER (D-NY)
KOHL (D-WI)
LEAHY (D-Vermont)
BROWN (D-Ohio)
INOUYE (D- Hawaii)

This is unconscionable, we need to get these guys kicked out of office

(1) IN GENERAL- Notwithstanding any other provision of this Act, no holder of a new drug application approved under subsection (c) shall manufacture, market, sell, or distribute an authorized generic drug, direct or indirectly, or authorize any other person to manufacture, market, sell, or distribute an authorized generic drug.

Morgan Freeman and racism.

2009-02-24T12:14:00.001-08:00

I have to say, I agree with Freeman here. He absolutely 100% right.

Fascists hijacking the anti-islamization movement

2008-09-09T08:40:00.000-07:00

I am worried, as it seems that european Nationalists (thats big 'N' nationalists) and fascists are taking over the anti-islamization movement in europe. It seems that in the next 20 years we will see a move towards fascism in europe. The current soft-socialist european governments have made the possible future worse by:

1) Increased surveillance: There are cameras everywhere, also many of these countries have a new wiretapping statutes and techniques enabling their government to legally wiretap everyone

2) New laws have been passed allowing many of these governments to take people hold them without charges.

3) A host of new speech crimes that are very hard to define. A lot of these laws are hate speech laws that can be twisted to make people who speak out against certain government policies into targets.

It seems the stage is being set for the Nationalists to take over and have all the tools that the soft-socialists made for them.

More worthless promises from Obama.

2008-03-07T20:41:00.000-08:00

More worthless promises from Obama.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080307/ap_on_el_pr/obama_adviser
Here is a little snippet:

WASHINGTON - A former adviser to Barack Obama who resigned Friday after calling rival Hillary Rodham Clinton “a monster” said Obama may not be able to withdraw all U.S. combat troops from Iraq within a year as he has promised on the campaign trail.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Shadows and Moonbeams

2007-12-11T19:38:00.001-08:00

long shadows creep past the moon
then crawl into your living room
silver streams sweep through your hair
on their way down to the floor

From now on turn back the sun
Only you can turn back the sun
Turn back the clocks
unlock those locks

Open your heart to me
Open your eyes and let me see
The life that flows behind those eyes
the life that take us by surprise

Dust motes now settle down
scattering moonbeams
before they hit the ground
and I know you are standing there

...waiting for me

Ten Politically Incorrect Truths About Human Nature

2007-07-08T04:12:00.000-07:00

Here are ten politically incorrect truths about human nature. Why men who marry much younger women don't have midlife crisis... Why, why polygamy sucks for men, but turns out to be much better for women... Why men sexually harass women... Why only male politicians risk their careers on a single affair... and more.

Why we fight

2007-07-05T21:29:00.001-07:00

Because there are crazier people out there than us, who want to ruin it for everyone and take over the world. If we learned anything from WWII I hope we learned to take people seriously when they say they want to rule the world and kill all of group x. So, I will quote them in their own words.

“Those who know nothing of Islam pretend that Islam counsels against war. Those [who say this] are witless.
Islam says: Kill all the unbelievers just as they would kill you all! Does this mean that Muslims should sit back until they are devoured by [the unbelievers]?
Islam says: Kill them, put them to the sword and scatter [their armies].
Islam says: Whatever good there is exists thanks to the sword and in the shadow of the sword! People cannot be made obedient except with the sword! The sword is the key to Paradise, which can be opened only for the Holy Warriors! There are hundreds of other [Quranic] psalms and Hadiths [sayings of the Prophet] urging Muslims to value war and to fight. Does all this mean that Islam is a religion that prevents men from waging war? I spit upon those foolish souls who make such a claim.” — -Ayatollah Khomeini

Flying over New Mexico

2007-07-02T14:33:00.000-07:00

I see the face of mars
beneath my airplane window
and to my right are stars

life takes hold here too
with patches of green
and rivers of blue

(not sure how to continue it... it doesn't seem done, maybe you have suggestions)

Proof that the internet has everything.

2007-06-23T19:36:00.000-07:00

This is proof that the internet has everything a site devoted to crying while eating.

Scientists Discover Whipping Therapy Cures Depression

2007-06-23T15:33:00.000-07:00

The title says it all.

She is...

2007-06-21T13:09:00.000-07:00

And I saw her standing there
wind blowing through her hair
and she was beautiful...
and she was beautiful...

and the sound of her voice would almost make you weep
and the sound of her breathing would put you right to sleep
and she was beautiful...
and she was beautiful...

and a frown on her face would bring a strong man to his knees
and a smile in her eyes would cause him to beg please
and she is beautiful...
and she is beautiful...
and she is mine!

Sniper's Zen

2007-06-09T21:30:00.000-07:00

when sights align
with an empty mind
a gentle tug
and the world explodes

Ethanol

2007-06-09T18:32:00.001-07:00

Not only is ethanol not environmentally friendly... apparently now we find it doesn't lead to energy independence and causes many other things to cost more .

Watching the Woman of his Dreams

2007-06-08T21:47:00.000-07:00

He sees you in his sleep
Though he doesn't know your name
He can see your face
but it isn't just the same

And at night, he dreams
Spinning webs of moonlight
he dreams you into being
your eyes glint of starlight
as you dance through his dreams

He doesn't know you're real
The woman of his dreams
Doesn't know how you feel
The woman of his dreams

If I were wise

2007-06-07T21:19:00.000-07:00

Some-times I die.
Deep in my heart
I don't know why.

Some-times you cry.
If I new what
If I only new why

All...
vows that you make
All..
hearts that you break
All ...
these games that you play.
All ...
these lies that you say.

Now...
If I were wise
I'd see past the pain
I'd see past the lies

But...
of friendship and trust
The promise of love
Its really not just

So...
We fail in this dance
We get caught in the web
We end up discarded

News: French hate self more than American hate them.

2007-04-28T10:09:00.000-07:00

Apparently the French hate themselves more than Americans hate them. Ah, those wacky French and their comedic self loathing.

Snakes in a hallway.

2007-04-28T09:58:00.000-07:00

I found a two foot long Back Racer snake in the physics building. It was relaxing, curled up on the floor in the middle of the first floor hallway. I was walking in and saw it just a whole troop of boy scouts were walking in as part of a tour. The poor thing almost got trampled, but I was able to save it. I scooped it into my backpack and then released it outside.

Baptism by fire.

2007-04-18T19:40:00.000-07:00

In the cold
and the rain
Into heat
you've come again

And cruel death
rose all around
from the sky
down to the ground

And the fire
kept coming from the sky
And the fire
kept raining from on high

streaks of light
all lit up
I don't wanna
drink this cup

on we fight
in death's ground
in his sight

And the fire
kept coming from the sky
And the fire
kept raining from on high

alone we go in
but out we come
as brothers

In moonlight (part 1)

2007-04-17T06:12:00.000-07:00

Draped in moonlight, she was standing there
little shadows on her face from her hair
in the dim white light, I could see
she was only looking right at me

In still silence, I could just hear
her softly breathing in my ear
quietly from somewhere, far away
violin music now starts to play

Surprise Surprise: Women and men see sexual harassment differently.

2007-04-07T03:25:00.000-07:00

Apparently women and men tend to see sexual harassment differently. Men tended to see sexual harassment as an abuse of power, meaning sexual harassment was something people with power did. Women tended to see sexual harassment as an attempt to gain power.

"So if a man thinks that sexual harassment only comes from a supervisor, he may feel free to make sexual comments to a female coworker. The female coworker is likely to see the sexual comments as a quest for power and label it as sexual harassment."

Study shows: Leanest teens tend to eat the most.

2007-04-07T03:19:00.000-07:00

A recent study found that amoung teens, the leanest ones tended to also eat the most and also burned the most energy.

Then another study finds that dieting actually may lead to long term weight gain! I think the message is clear, eat when you are hungry and lead an active lifestyle!

Joke

2007-03-02T08:02:00.000-08:00

Q: How many surrealists does it take to screw in a light bulb

A: It takes two. One to hold the giraffe and the other to fill the bathtub full of brightly coloured screwdrivers.

Back to Texas.

2007-03-02T05:54:00.000-08:00

Well, my advisor got a really good job offer from University of Texas at Arlington. He accepted and will be bringing the most of the research group with him, so it looks like I will be moving back to Texas.
I'll be getting an effective pay raise, because the cost of living is much lower there and I won't have to pay for my own health insurance.
With the extra money, I intend to get a car. Having a car again, will be so nice and convenient. I was thinking a light pickup, for the utility, but does anyone else have suggestions on a car? Remember my budget is somewhat limited.
Its a somewhat better research university than where I now am at, and its a public university so we should have more money at our disposal.

I miss Houston!

2007-02-27T01:52:00.000-08:00

I miss Houston.
I miss the heat,
I miss the humidity,
I miss the friendly, pretty girls who would smile at you when you nodded their way or howdied them as you walked past.
I miss the brightness at night.
I miss the really, really good restaurants.
I miss the trees!
Florida doesn't seem to have to many real trees.
I miss free concerts in Herman park.

Well, enough nostalgia for now... I like Florida just fine, but I really miss Texas.

Your dream car.

2007-02-27T01:44:00.000-08:00

Every guy has one, a dream vehicle. We all promise ourselves when we are old enough and can afford this thing we will get it. Somewhere along the way we forget because of bills, family, mortgages, etc. Then we hit our midlife crisis and realize we haven't fulfilled any of our dreams so we reach out and buy the car... because at 40 its one thing we can still do. With 600 horsepower and other amaisingly awsome goodies, well, here she is in all her beauty, the car of my dreams.

Happy chinese new year!

2007-02-18T08:18:00.000-08:00

Yes folks! My sources tell me its now the Chinese year of the pig! OINKOINK.
I'm pretty bummed, I missed the launch. It was scheduled for Friday but got scrubbed. They ended up launching Saturday, but I forgot to check the Saturday launch window. Oh well, the THEMIS satellites are still very cool. I was talking to my friend Paul (Heh, I should now say Dr. Paul. Congratulations!) about them and we figured how the early part of the mission may be able to back up some ideas he has about day side Pi2.

Some Weekend Ramblings

2007-02-17T12:56:00.000-08:00

Went to the launch conference last week for THEMIS after the meeting a friend and I went to a
Dick Dale concert. Man, that old guy can really play the guitar. It was a pretty good show and the music (as well as the volume) was awesome. He also did some Johnny Cash impressions that were really good.

I'm pretty excited about THEMIS, hopefully it can settle some pretty long running disputes we have had in my field and clear up some confusion. Nothing quite like empirical data to give us insight.

Well, I'm off to get some food... later y'all.

Come With Me Baby!

2007-02-12T05:41:00.000-08:00

come with me baby, tell me who you are
don't worry, I won't let you get to far
away from me your flower will fade
don't worry baby, time can't persuade
the life you live to leave you alone
with just me we will find us your home

so kiss your brother and father adieu
to the city that gave life to you
and me we will fly up past the stars
we go where all the music is sung
in love of each and all that is real
in life, when I will take you away

come my baby I will take you away
come my baby I will take you away
come my baby I will take you away
from here...

No, I am not a real doctor.

2007-02-10T01:31:00.000-08:00

No, I am not a real doctor. Nor am I a real wizard, as amusing as that would be.
I am a scientist and something of an amateur philosopher. This place will be a portal to my philoso-political thoughts and a few other things.

First Post

2007-02-10T00:54:00.000-08:00

This is the first post... yes, the very first one... here we go. Welcome to this blog; there are many like it, but this one is mine.