Spending is the Problem.

"Do shocks to government spending raise or lower consumption and real wages? Standard VAR identification approaches show a rise in these variables, whereas the Ramey-Shapiro narrative identification approach finds a fall. I show that a key difference in the approaches is the timing. Both professional forecasts and the narrative approach shocks Granger-cause the VAR shocks, implying that the VAR shocks are missing the timing of the news. Simulations from a standard neoclassical model in which government spending is anticipated by several quarters demonstrate that VARs estimated with faulty timing can produce a rise in consumption even when it decreases in the model. Motivated by the importance of measuring anticipations, I construct two new variables that measure anticipations. The first is based on narrative evidence that is much richer than the Ramey-Shapiro military dates and covers 1939 to 2008. The second is from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and covers the period 1969 to 2008. All news measures suggest that most components of consumption fall after a positive shock to government spending. The implied government spending multipliers range from 0.6 to 1.1. " (emphasis mine)

This means that at best government spending is more or less a net wash, and at worst it causes actual damage to the economy. I've said it before, elsewhere, government spending crowds out individual spending.

Hat tip: Kids Prefer Cheese

Here is the actual paper.

Crime, Certainty, Immediacy

In terms of crime deterrent from a state point of view, this is brilliant.
I have been saying, to friends and family, for a long time that immediacy and certainty matter a lot more than the severity of the punishment. From a non-state view, this sugests that violent crime would go down if more people were willing to use force to protect their fellow man.

Also, from this we can conclude that if people fought back against muggers, rapists, thieves, etc, we would see a lot less of that sort of crime.

The March of Time

they claim to know the future
they claim to know your past
but when we are done here
its all just put to rest
and time marches onwards
to its steady, steady drum
and time marches onwards
to its steady, steady drum

they wanna turn
they wanna fight
and then they wanna run
but time marches onward
to its steady, steady drum
and time marches onwards
to its steady, steady drum

The fires burn
across the land time forgot
black wheels turn
bringing fire in the sky
so time marches onwards
to its steady, steady drum

Poem about Orange

Ode to orange
so jucy and yellow
so sweet and tart and mellow
Nothing rhymes with you
and one and one make two
the line before was just to rhyme
and keep the rhythm
help keep time
but orange
nothing rhymes with you
Door-hinge

In the name of SCIENCE: Chocolate edition

"Researchers at the University of East Anglia and a hospital in Norwich, eastern England are trying to find out whether chocolate can cut the risk of heart disease and need 40 women to step forward and help. "

Chocolate every day for a year!

PR FAIL

From MammaPundit.

"So to recap, Nikon held an invitation-only, evening event to promote their brand to,
and curry favor with high-influence MOMMYbloggers, but then the brand's event planners literally
disallowed women with babies from attending,"

Wow, hahahahahaha

Thomas Sowell talks about his new book Economic Facts and Fallacies

This is a great video, I learned a lot. All I have to say is "wow!"